Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome. The market resolves to a specific temperature range in degrees Celsius, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than its summary figures. This distinction matters: discrepancies between the two data sources favour the granular Daily Observations record, which typically captures sub-hourly readings and avoids rounding artefacts common in summary panels.

Chongqing's August climate presents a stable baseline for probability assessment. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs in August clustering between 32–36°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 38°C or falling below 30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature range that historical patterns make unlikely, or uncertainty about the exact settlement boundaries. Comparable East Asian airport stations (Shanghai Pudong, Nanjing Lukou) exhibit similar August thermal profiles, making precedent-based calibration feasible for those examining seasonal volatility and microclimatic factors around the airport's location in the Jiangbei district.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, anomalous monsoon shifts, or heat dome formation across central China—would shift probabilities materially. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 August, allowing only morning-hours observation before resolution, so real-time weather station data availability becomes operationally critical.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

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What if regulation changes?

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