Next Prime Minister of Sweden

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden will hold its next parliamentary election on 13 September 2026, where the 349 elected members of the Riksdag will subsequently appoint the nation’s next Prime Minister[1][5]. This real-world event forms the sole basis for the prediction market, which resolves only when an individual officially assumes office, excluding any interim or caretaker leaders[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects the market’s early stage, well before coalition negotiations begin, and aligns with historical precedents where PM appointments in Sweden have been uncertain until post-election bargaining[2][6]. Comparable cases from the 2018 and 2022 elections show that even frontrunners like Socialdemokraterna, currently leading polls at 32.4%, do not guarantee immediate PM selection until the Riksdag votes[2].

Traders should monitor coalition announcements, snap election risks, and the Swedish Election Authority’s security measures against foreign malign influence[1][4]. A key catalyst is the formal coalition agreement expected shortly after the 13 September vote, which will determine the PM candidate[1]. Recent reporting from the Psychological Defence Agency highlights heightened vigilance over election integrity, a factor that could delay or complicate the appointment process[7]. The market’s accessibility is shaped by regulatory frameworks: German GlüStV implications may restrict access for EU residents, while US CFTC reach could affect traders in the United States. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” feature allows smaller traders to participate without identity verification, enhancing accessibility for those under this threshold, though it does not override jurisdictional restrictions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.