World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is currently underway, and this market hinges on whether the total count of penalty kicks missed or saved during regular, stoppage, or extra time reaches a specific threshold. Only penalties taken in these phases count; shootout kicks are excluded. With the crowd-implied probability of a “Yes” outcome sitting at just 1%, the market suggests that a high volume of missed penalties is considered extremely unlikely for this tournament.

Historically, World Cup penalty conversion rates have been exceptionally high. Since 1982, only one penalty has been missed out of 18 taken in the tournament proper, excluding shootouts[2]. Famous misses like Roberto Baggio’s in the 1994 final remain outliers rather than norms[7]. Even recent data from the 2026 tournament shows Switzerland scoring their first non-shootout penalty, indicating penalties are still being converted[4]. This scarcity of missed penalties frames the current 1% probability as consistent with decades of tournament data.

Traders should monitor upcoming knockout-stage fixtures, where pressure may increase missed attempts, and any official announcements regarding penalty rule changes, such as FIFA’s reported push to alter coin-toss protocols in shootouts[1]. While these changes do not directly affect non-shootout penalties, they signal heightened regulatory attention on penalty mechanics. Recent coverage of Lionel Messi missing a penalty against Austria in the 2026 tournament highlights that misses can still occur under pressure[6]. No-KYC access up to $1,500 under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks enhances accessibility for this market, allowing broader participation without identity verification, though this does not alter the underlying statistical likelihood.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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