Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport in New Zealand on 26 June 2026, with the market currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above 11°C. Historical data from early June 2026 shows a sharp seasonal drop: on 1 June, the peak was 20°C, whereas by 21 June, temperatures hovered between 7°C and 9°C with strong north winds and light rain [2][3]. Just two days prior, on 24 June, Wellington’s official high was exactly 17°C, yet the current crowd-implied probability for 26 June centres almost entirely on 11°C, suggesting traders anticipate a return to the cooler, wetter conditions seen earlier in the week rather than the brief warmth of 24 June [4][1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s real-time METAR updates for Wellington International Airport and Wunderground’s daily history, as these are the definitive resolution sources for this market [5]. The primary catalyst is the persistence of strong north-northwest winds gusting up to 50 km/h, which historically suppress daytime highs in coastal Wellington, alongside any unexpected shifts in cloud cover or rainfall intensity that could alter the thermal profile [3]. While no specific regulatory announcement is pending, the market’s accessibility hinges on the platform’s compliance with the German Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) and US CFTC reach; notably, the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows retail participants to access this weather derivative without identity verification, provided their total exposure remains within that limit, a feature that significantly broadens participation despite the strict regulatory frameworks governing such platforms in both jurisdictions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.