Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s outcome here is the **highest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport on 4 August**, with the market settling to the range containing that daily maximum. Early August in Tokyo is normally very warm: official and forecast sources place daytime highs around the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with August averages near 28.5°C and monthly highs often around 33°C, so the distribution of plausible settlement outcomes is centred well above the low-20s bands and leaves the extreme upper ranges dependent on a sharp hot spell.[13][15][16]

That historical shape explains why a **0% YES** crowd price is best read as a statement about how unlikely the market thinks the exact target band is, not as an assertion that Tokyo will be cool. Comparable August climatology shows high temperatures rarely falling below the mid-20s Celsius, while hot, humid conditions and occasional typhoon-related rain are common late in the month; these factors can cap maxima or, in dry sunny conditions, push them higher.[15][16][17] The Haneda-specific reading also matters: airport stations can run a little differently from city-centre forecasts, so traders should anchor to the observation used by Wunderground rather than broader Tokyo forecasts.[13]

The main catalysts are straightforward: updates to the Japan Meteorological Agency forecast, the evolution of cloud, rainfall and typhoon tracks, and any short-lived heat build-up in the hours before the settlement window closes.[13][16] In accessible terms, “**no-KYC up to $1,500**” means a user can usually open and use the market without identity verification until cumulative activity reaches that threshold, which can make access faster for small positions but does not remove jurisdictional limits or platform checks. For regulatory framing, Germany’s GlüStV can restrict or complicate retail betting-style access, and US CFTC reach remains relevant where a venue or user activity touches US derivatives or event-contract rules, so availability can differ materially by location even when the market itself is visible online.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

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Do I need to KYC for Is Polymarket Legal in Canada?

Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.

How are winnings taxed?

Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.

Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Polymarket Legal in Canada would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.