Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which serves as the authoritative resolution source should any discrepancy arise with the Day High & Low summary. The market settles on the temperature range bracket containing that single daily maximum reading in degrees Celsius.

August in Tokyo typically peaks between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events have pushed readings above 37°C in recent years. The Japan Meteorological Agency recorded 37.5°C on 16 August 2023 and 37.0°C on 3 August 2024, establishing a pattern of late-summer intensity. Historical data from Haneda shows August 21 specifically has ranged from 29–34°C over the past decade, placing it mid-range for the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific date's typical range or awaiting seasonal forecasts closer to summer 2026.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under Germany's GlüStV framework, prediction markets require licensing; traders in that region face compliance obligations. The US CFTC maintains broad reach over derivatives contracts, including weather-linked prediction markets, though enforcement varies by platform registration status. Many platforms operate under a no-KYC threshold up to $1,500 per transaction, meaning traders can participate in smaller positions without identity verification—though this market's settlement in August 2026 allows substantial time for regulatory clarification. Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks, released quarterly, which typically refine summer temperature expectations by June 2026.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada has a different geo footprint.

Do I need to KYC for Is Polymarket Legal in Canada?

Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.

How are winnings taxed?

Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.

Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).