Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 27 June 2026, which will determine the market’s resolution in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows Seoul’s June highs typically range between 19°C and 28°C, with the warmest day in early June 2026 reaching 34.0°C on 19 June [9]. Given that 27 June falls late in the month, when monsoon rains begin increasing humidity and lowering peak temperatures [1][4], a temperature exceeding the upper historical band is improbable, aligning with the current 0% crowd-implied probability for higher ranges.

Traders should monitor daily forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, particularly for sudden heat spikes or rain delays that could suppress maximum temperatures [6]. Recent climate reports confirm monsoon activity intensifies from late June to mid-July, often bringing afternoon showers that cap daytime highs [1][4]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but dependencies include real-time Wunderground updates, the official source for resolution [market description]. The regulatory landscape adds another layer: German GlüStV rules may restrict access for EU residents, while US CFTC reach could impact US traders, though “no-KYC up to $1,500” thresholds currently allow broader participation for this specific market without identity verification [market description].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.