Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the daily peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of this weather prediction market. Historical late-June climatology for Seoul typically supports highs near 28°C, yet recent data shows a stable pattern that significantly reduces downside risk from cooler anomalies[3]. In 2025, record-breaking average daily temperatures swept across South Korea, with Mokpo hitting 28.1°C and Busan, Daegu, and other southern cities setting new June records amid a sweltering heat wave[1][9]. This context frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a lower range, suggesting traders view a standard or elevated heat day as the baseline outcome rather than an outlier.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heat advisories and the specific timing of the Incheon station’s peak reading, as dependencies include real-time atmospheric pressure shifts and solar radiation levels. Recent reports confirm South Korea recorded its highest average summer temperature on record, with the national mean reaching 25.6°C from June to August, reinforcing the likelihood of elevated temperatures in late June[7]. While the market resolves based on Wunderground data for Incheon, the broader regional trend of record shattering across 59 of 97 weather stations suggests a high probability of temperatures exceeding historical norms[9].

From a regulatory perspective, this market’s accessibility hinges on jurisdictional frameworks, including German GlüStV implications for online gambling and US CFTC reach over prediction contracts. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows retail participants to trade without identity verification, provided they remain within this limit, though compliance obligations may shift if the transaction exceeds it. These structural rules define the market’s operational boundaries without altering the underlying weather event, ensuring that accessibility remains broad for small-scale traders while maintaining adherence to international regulatory standards.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.