Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying event is the daily peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of a prediction market focused on Seoul’s heat. Historical data shows Seoul’s June highs typically range between 22°C and 31°C, rarely exceeding 32°C, with the country recently recording its hottest June average since 1973 at 22.9°C[4]. A new all-time national heat record of 41.0°C was set in Hongcheon last year, though such extremes remain uncommon in the capital[2]. Recent June 2026 data from Seoul indicates a peak of 32.6°C (90.7°F) on 19 June, suggesting current conditions are within normal seasonal bounds[3].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave advisories and any official announcements regarding extreme weather protocols, as these often precede temperature spikes. The market’s 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects no record-breaking heat, but dependencies include monsoon timing and urban heat amplification effects. A recent report from Yonhap News confirms South Korea’s trend toward hotter summers, reinforcing the need to track real-time forecasts as settlement nears[4].

From a regulatory standpoint, the market’s accessibility hinges on jurisdictional frameworks: Germany’s GlüStV may restrict participation without KYC, while the US CFTC permits certain unregulated prediction markets under specific thresholds. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” clause allows traders in compliant jurisdictions to participate anonymously, provided they stay below this limit. However, this does not override local tax or anti-money laundering obligations, and traders must verify their eligibility under national laws before engaging.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.