Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **highest temperature** recorded at San Francisco International Airport on 10 August 2026, measured from Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low box. Weather Underground’s station page and the National Weather Service’s KSFO data both show San Francisco’s August highs typically cluster in the low 70s °F, with the airport’s normal maximum for 10 August listed at **73°F**, which frames a market around a fairly narrow temperature band rather than a true heat-event outcome.[3][9][10]

The current **0% YES** implies the crowd is treating the named temperature range as effectively unreachable, but comparable history argues for caution: KSFO has produced late-summer highs well below the record **86°F** and generally near the upper 60s to low 70s, including a reported **71°F** maximum on 9 August in recent airport climatology and Weather Underground observations.[3][9][10] For a market like this, the practical read is not on dramatic heat, but on whether marine influence, cloud cover, or a modest inland flow pushes the airport into a slightly warmer afternoon than the climatological norm.

Traders should watch the airport’s updated observation feeds, since the settlement source is the live **Daily Observations** table and not the headline summary, and the final print can turn on a late-afternoon one- or two-degree move.[4][9][10] On the regulatory side, a market on a weather outcome is typically analysed through the lens of jurisdiction and access rules rather than product risk alone: German **GlüStV** restrictions matter if the product is treated as gambling in Germany, the **US CFTC** can reach event contracts that fall within derivatives-style supervision, and **no-KYC up to $1,500** means a user can usually get limited, lower-friction access before identity checks are triggered, which affects who can enter this specific market and at what size.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

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You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.

Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Polymarket Legal in Canada would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.