Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and resolved via Wunderground data. This single meteorological reading determines the market outcome, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date.

Historical precedents from similar Polymarket weather events show consistent clustering around 82–83°F for late June in NYC, as seen in markets for 24 June and 26 June 2026, both resolving to that range with 100% frontrunner probability [1][2]. The 8 June 2026 market resolved lower at 74–75°F, reflecting cooler early-month conditions [3]. The current 0% YES probability for lower ranges aligns with this pattern, suggesting traders view the 82–83°F outcome as near-certain based on seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological report for LaGuardia, which will confirm the actual maximum temperature once released [6], and watch for any Wunderground data updates that might adjust the recorded high [7]. Recent volatility in similar climate markets on Robinhood and Kalshi indicates that even minor deviations from the forecast can shift odds rapidly [4][5]. No regulatory announcements are expected before settlement, but the German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks remain relevant for platform compliance, while the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold ensures accessibility for retail participants without identity verification.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.