Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s official figure will be the **highest temperature** logged by the Hong Kong Observatory on 10 August, in Celsius to one decimal place, and the market resolves only once the Observatory publishes the finalized Daily Extract. The current 0% yes price implies traders are treating the exact top-end outcome as highly unlikely at this stage, which is unusual in a city where August maxima commonly sit in the low 30s but can spike sharply during hot, dry airflows and tropical-cyclone периоды. The immediate reference point is the Observatory’s own recent extreme: it reported **36.9°C** on 9 August 2026, the hottest reading in its records since 1884, surpassing the prior **36.6°C** record from August 2017.[1][7][3]

For context, these temperature markets tend to be read against the whole distribution of plausible daily highs rather than a single forecast number. Recent public market pricing had the leading outcomes around **35°C** and **36°C**, which is consistent with August climatology and with the HKO’s 1981–2010 normals showing an average maximum of about **31.1°C** on 10 August.[2][6] Comparable heat events show why a tail outcome can matter: on 9 August 2026 the Observatory’s headquarters reached 36.9°C, while outlying stations were even hotter, underscoring that the official settlement point depends on the Observatory’s designated measurement, not the citywide maximum.[1][7]

From a regulatory and access perspective, the main issue is not the weather itself but whether your venue is operating inside the relevant jurisdictional perimeter. German GlüStV rules can matter if the product is treated as a regulated gambling-style contract, while the US CFTC reach is the key question if the market is offered to US persons or resembles a derivatives contract. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to trade or withdraw only within that cumulative threshold before identity verification is required, which can make the market easier to access initially but does not change the underlying settlement source or the need to wait for the HKO’s final publication.[2][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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