Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms June is exceptionally hot and humid in Guangzhou, with a record high of 36.6°C and frequent thunderstorms that can suppress temperatures [1][3]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest range suggests traders expect significant rainfall or cloud cover to prevent extreme heat, aligning with patterns where typhoons or heavy downpours lower daily peaks during this wet season [1].

Traders must monitor real-time weather schedules for typhoon warnings and heavy storm forecasts, as these are the primary catalysts that could invalidate the 0% probability assumption [1]. Recent reports indicate Guangzhou experienced continuous sunny days with highs up to 36.3°C in May, setting a precedent for extreme heat that could persist if the subtropical high-pressure system remains dominant [4]. Accessibility for this market is shaped by regulatory frameworks: German GlüStV implications may restrict participation for residents in certain states, while US CFTC reach creates compliance hurdles for American traders [1]. However, the "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold allows smaller participants to access this weather market without identity verification, provided they stay within the limit, though this does not exempt them from broader legal obligations under local tax or KYC laws.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 27 June 2026, meaning any late-morning storm could decisively alter the outcome [1]. While July is statistically the hottest month, June’s average high of 32°C and frequent heavy rain create a volatile environment where a single weather event can shift the probability from 0% to a significant value [3][7]. Participants should treat the 0% figure as a reflection of current storm forecasts rather than a guarantee, given the historical volatility of Guangzhou’s subtropical climate.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.