Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for 100 days due to ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States, halting roughly 20% of global oil supply and causing a precipitous drop in daily ship passages from a normal average of 120 to near zero[2][3]. This market hinges on whether the International Monetary Fund’s Portwatch data records a seven-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls by July 31, 2026, a threshold that represents a return to functional but not yet fully normal traffic levels[6].

Historical precedents for such closures are scarce in modern history, yet the brief reopening on April 21, 2026, which lasted only a single day before closing again, illustrates the extreme volatility and fragility of current transit conditions[4]. The current crowd-implied probability of 56% suggests a cautious optimism that diplomatic pressure, including President Trump’s stipulation that reopening is a prerequisite for any ceasefire, may force a sustained opening, though the presence of mines and continued Iranian assaults on vessels remain significant barriers[2][4].

Traders must monitor the U.S. Central Command’s daily transit announcements, as 55 merchant ships successfully crossed on Saturday, June 21, offering a potential signal of renewed flow[9]. Key catalysts include the expiration of war risk cover, the threat of missile attacks, and any new naval blockade declarations, all of which could instantly reverse progress[4]. Regarding accessibility, German GlüStV regulations and US CFTC reach create a complex regulatory landscape, yet the 'no-KYC up to $1,500' provision allows traders to access this specific market without immediate identity verification, provided they remain within the stipulated threshold, though this does not exempt them from broader tax or reporting obligations under local laws.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.