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World Cup: Player to score

"World Cup: Player to score" — odds, fees, regulatory status. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada as a Polymarket alternative.

Julián Álvarez 100% Lionel Messi 100% João Neves 100% Jude Bellingham 100% Volume: $1.3M Liquidity: $60K Closes: 20 Jul 2026
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World Cup: Player to score

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Polymarket Legal in Canada) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Julián Álvarez100%
Lionel Messi100%
João Neves100%
Jude Bellingham100%
Luis Díaz100%
Lautaro Martínez100%
Virgil van Dijk100%
Jamal Musiala100%
Nuno Mendes100%
Kevin De Bruyne100%
Désiré Doué100%
Cristiano Ronaldo100%
Ousmane Dembélé100%
Enzo Fernández100%
Mohamed Salah100%
Cody Gakpo100%
Ismaïla Sarr100%
Rafael Leão100%
Alexis Mac Allister100%
Gabriel Martinelli100%
Viktor Gyökeres100%
Arda Güler100%
Fabián Ruiz100%
Casemiro100%
Mikel Merino100%
Raúl Jiménez100%
Gonçalo Ramos100%
Mikel Oyarzabal100%
Lisandro Martínez100%
Bradley Barcola100%
Alexander Isak100%
Dan Ndoye100%
Granit Xhaka100%
Breel Embolo100%
Matheus Cunha100%
Wilson Isidor100%
Folarin Balogun100%
Julio Enciso100%
Kai Havertz100%
Leroy Sané100%
Amad Diallo100%
Nicolas Pépé100%
Keito Nakamura100%
Anthony Elanga100%
Charles De Ketelaere100%
Romelu Lukaku100%
Leandro Trossard100%
Iliman Ndiaye100%
Marcel Sabitzer100%
Yoane Wissa100%
Marcus Rashford100%
Ivan Perišić100%
Neymar Jr.100%
Dário Leite48%
Eberechi Eze34%
Bukayo Saka21%
Dani Olmo21%
Ferran Torres17%
Nico Williams15%
Declan Rice14%
Marc Cucurella13%
Michael Olise13%
Marcus Thuram12%
Rodri11%
Pedri11%
Rayan Cherki8%
N'Golo Kanté6%
Reece James6%
Marc Guéhi6%
Aurélien Tchouaméni5%
Gavi4%
Pau Cubarsí3%
Ibrahima Konaté2%
Jules Koundé2%
Martin Zubimendi1%
Federico Valverde0%
Bruno Fernandes0%
Raphinha0%
Moisés Caicedo0%
Gabriel Magalhães0%
Florian Wirtz0%
Antoine Semenyo0%
Joshua Kimmich0%
Alphonso Davies0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Cole Palmer0%
Luka Modrić0%
Denzel Dumfries0%
Jérémy Doku0%
Antonio Rüdiger0%
Tijjani Reijnders0%
Rúben Dias0%
Bruno Guimarães0%
Frenkie de Jong0%
Trent Alexander-Arnold0%
Vitinha0%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia0%
Robert Lewandowski0%
David Raya0%
Sadio Mané0%
Martin Ødegaard0%
William Pacho0%
Scott McTominay0%
Ryan Gravenberch0%
Fermín López0%
Joško Gvardiol0%
Marquinhos0%
William Saliba0%
João Pedro0%
Weston McKennie0%
João Cancelo0%
Christian Pulisic0%
Son Heung-min0%
Jeremie Frimpong0%
Kenan Yıldız0%
Kaoru Mitoma0%
Phil Foden0%
Kim Min-jae0%
Pervis Estupiñán0%
Noah Okafor0%
Abdulaziz Hatem0%
Ahmed Fathi0%
Igor Thiago0%
Endrick0%
Brahim Díaz0%
Josué Casimir0%
Che Adams0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Miguel Almirón0%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu0%
Nick Woltemade0%
Lennart Kahl0%
Tahith Chong0%
Yann Bisseck0%
Ibrahim Sangaré0%
Teun Koopmeiners0%
Memphis Depay0%
Donyell Malen0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Khalil Ayari0%
Omar Marmoush0%
Haissem Hassan0%
Chris Wood0%
Alexander Sørloth0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Emiliano Buendía0%
Carney Chukwuemeka0%
Pedro Neto0%
Luis Suárez0%
James Rodríguez0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Ismael Díaz0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Darwin Nunez0%

Market context

The World Cup: Player to score prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed player scores a goal during any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. A goal scored during regular t…

Methodology

This overview of World Cup: Player to score reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Do I need to KYC for Is Polymarket Legal in Canada?
Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
How are winnings taxed?
Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
What happens during a tax audit?
You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
and

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