Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Polymarket Legal in Canada) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| Sweden O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| Poland O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| Both Teams to Score | 63% |
| Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 61% |
| O/U 2.5 | 57% |
| Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| Poland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| Sweden O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sweden (-4.5) | 50% |
| Poland (-4.5) | 50% |
| Sweden (-5.5) | 50% |
| Sweden 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Sweden 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Poland 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Poland 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| 2nd Half O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Poland 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Poland 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Sweden 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Poland O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| 1st Half O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Poland O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 32% |
| Poland 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Sweden 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Sweden (-1.5) | 23% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 23% |
| Sweden O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Poland O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| Poland 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| Poland O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Poland (-1.5) | 13% |
| Poland 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| Sweden O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Sweden (-2.5) | 10% |
| Poland (-5.5) | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Sweden O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Sweden 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Poland (-2.5) | 4% |
| Poland O/U 3.5 | 4% |
| Sweden (-3.5) | 3% |
| O/U 6.5 | 3% |
| Sweden O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Poland (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, sweden vs. poland - more markets stands at 95% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for September 28 at 2:45 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Sweden vs. Poland - More Markets reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Is Polymarket Legal in Canada?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Polymarket Legal in Canada would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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