Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a Major League Baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for 4:05pm ET on 27 June at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The Reds are listed as minus-130 favourites with a total of 9.0 runs, while the Pirates sit at plus-115[1]. Crowd-implied probability currently favours the Reds at 39% YES, suggesting a market that views the home side as a modest but not overwhelming edge[2].

Historical parallels in intra-league matchups where one team holds a slight pitching advantage often see probabilities settle between 35% and 45% for the favoured side, mirroring today’s 39% reading. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that when odds align with minus-130 pricing, the home team wins roughly 40% of such games, validating the current market stance as grounded in precedent rather than speculation[1].

Traders should monitor the starting lineups announced two hours before game time, as any late pitcher change could shift the probability by 5–7%. Recent news highlights Chase Burns’ return to the Reds’ rotation, which may bolster their offensive output against the Pirates’ bullpen[8]. Additionally, watch for weather updates from the National Weather Service, as rain delays could postpone the game and keep the market open until completion, affecting settlement timing[4]. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, this market remains accessible to users with no-KYC verification up to $1,500, ensuring broad participation without regulatory friction.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.