UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Theodor Berggren and Daniil Donchenko are set to clash in a welterweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night in Baku on 27 June 2026, with Donchenko already officially declared the winner after finishing Berggren in the second round. This outcome resolves the prediction market to “Daniil Donchenko”, rendering the 0% YES probability for Berggren entirely consistent with the live result now confirmed by the UFC [6].

Historical precedents in UFC prediction markets show that when a fighter is eliminated mid-round, markets correcting to the victor within minutes of official confirmation are standard, and early trading probabilities often collapse to zero once the finish is verified [1][2]. Comparable cases from past Fight Nights, such as when Sergey Bilostenniy secured a heavyweight TKO, demonstrate that markets resolving to the winner shortly after the bout’s conclusion follow a predictable regulatory pattern where settlement aligns with the UFC’s official record [2].

Traders should monitor the UFC’s official announcement channels for any post-fight disciplinary rulings or technical draw declarations, though none are expected given the clear TKO finish [6]. The primary catalyst remains the UFC’s confirmation timestamp, which has already occurred, and any subsequent regulatory updates from the CFTC regarding settlement integrity for US-based platforms [4]. With German GlüStV implications limiting unlicensed operators and US CFTC reach enforcing KYC thresholds, the “no-KYC up to $1,500” clause enhances accessibility for this market only if the platform holds proper licensing, a factor now moot given the resolved outcome [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.