Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Polymarket Legal in Canada) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 55% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 38% |
| New York Yankees | 25% |
| San Diego Padres | 23% |
| Atlanta Braves | 20% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 17% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 11% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 8% |
| Chicago Cubs | 6% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 5% |
| Texas Rangers | 5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 4% |
| Miami Marlins | 4% |
| Seattle Mariners | 4% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 3% |
| Houston Astros | 3% |
| Minnesota Twins | 3% |
| San Francisco Giants | 3% |
| Washington Nationals | 3% |
| Boston Red Sox | 2% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1% |
| Detroit Tigers | 1% |
| Kansas City Royals | 1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1% |
| New York Mets | 1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 0% |
| Athletics | 0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 55% probability to mlb: team to win 100+ games. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impos…
Methodology
This overview of MLB: Team to win 100+ games reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Polymarket Legal in Canada would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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