Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Cleveland Guardians 3-1 in their MLB game on Friday, 26 June 2026, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, with J.P. Crawford scoring the go-ahead run in the seventh inning[1][3]. This result confirms the market’s current 100% YES probability that the Mariners will win, as the game has already been completed and the outcome is settled under official MLB statistics[2].

Historical precedents in MLB prediction markets show that once a game concludes with a clear winner, markets resolve immediately without further volatility, mirroring cases where postponed games are replayed and then settled based on final scores[4]. In this instance, the absence of a tie or cancellation ensures a definitive resolution to the Mariners, aligning with past outcomes where no make-up game was required and the original result stood[7].

Traders should monitor any official MLB announcements regarding future series schedules or player availability, particularly as the Mariners and Guardians face again on Saturday, 27 June, at 7:10 PM ET[4][5]. While no new catalysts affect this settled market, upcoming roster updates or injury reports from ESPN could influence future betting lines for the next matchup[5]. The market’s accessibility remains high due to its “no-KYC up to $1,500” structure, which permits participation without identity verification under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, provided the bet stays within the threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.