Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is an MLB game between the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for 26 June 2026 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, with tickets now available from $48[1][6]. The contest begins at 7:15 pm local time, though the market description notes an 8:15 pm ET start, reflecting the Eastern time zone conversion[1][7]. This single game determines the market resolution: a Marlins win resolves to "Miami Marlins", while a Cardinals win resolves to "St. Louis Cardinals"[2][3].

Historically, markets with 100% crowd-implied probability for a specific team outcome in MLB have rarely settled as ties or cancellations, given the league's strict rules on postponements and make-up games[2][3]. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that even when one team is heavily favoured, the 50–50 tie resolution clause only activates in the rare event of an official cancellation without a make-up, which has not occurred in recent high-stakes MLB games[3][8]. The current 100% probability suggests the crowd views the Cardinals as virtually certain to win, aligning with Max Meyer’s strong 3–0 record and 2.31 ERA in his last four starts[3].

Traders should monitor official MLB announcements regarding weather delays or player injuries, as these are the primary dependencies that could alter the game’s outcome[2][3]. Alec Burleson’s 23-game on-base streak is a key catalyst for the Cardinals’ offensive momentum, and any news on his status could shift market confidence[3]. Recent coverage from The Athletic confirms the game’s scheduled start time and provides real-time box score updates, which serve as the primary resolution source[8]. For accessibility, the market’s "no-KYC up to $1,500" feature allows users to trade without identity verification, though German GlüStV and US CFTC regulations may impose additional compliance requirements for larger transactions or cross-border activity[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.