Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Major League Baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox held on 26 June 2026 at Rate Field in Chicago, where the White Sox defeated the Royals 22–1. This result, featuring a 10-run third inning and five home runs, marks the White Sox’s fifth consecutive win against the Royals and sets a franchise season high for runs and hits[1][2].

Historical precedents for such lopsided outcomes show that when a team dominates with a 21-point margin and five homers in a single game, the crowd-implied probability of the opponent winning collapses to near zero, as seen in this market’s 0% YES rating[2][4]. Comparable cases from the 1970s, including Boston’s 22-run game, confirm that such scoring explosions render the opposing side’s win probability negligible in prediction markets[1].

Traders should monitor the MLB’s official final statistics portal for any game postponement or cancellation notices, as the market remains open until completion if delayed, but resolves 50–50 if cancelled entirely[4]. Recent coverage from ESPN highlights Tristan Peters’ grand slam and Miguel Vargas’ three-run homer as key catalysts that solidified the White Sox’s dominance, making further Royals win scenarios highly improbable[2]. For accessibility, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach frame regulatory boundaries, while ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ means this market is accessible without identity verification for smaller stakes, though larger trades may require compliance checks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.