Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is an MLB game between the Houston Astros and the Detroit Tigers, scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on 26 June 2026 in Detroit, where the winner of the match determines the market outcome.

Historical patterns show the Astros lead the all-time series 55-45 and defeated the Tigers 2-1 in the first game of this four-game series on 25 June, yet the Tigers secured an 8-0 victory in the second game on 26 June, illustrating the volatility that frames the current 0% probability for the Astros[1][3]. This swing from a narrow win to a shutout loss suggests the market is pricing in the Tigers' recent dominance and their 13-29 record against sub-.500 teams this season, rather than the Astros' overall series advantage[2].

Traders must monitor the official final statistics released by the MLB governing body, as any postponement extends the settlement window while a cancellation or tie resolves the market 50-50[1]. Key catalysts include the starting pitchers Montero for the Tigers and Arrighetti for the Astros, whose recent form directly impacts game outcomes, alongside any late roster announcements or weather dependencies that could alter the schedule[3][7]. Regarding accessibility, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the regulatory perimeter, while the 'no-KYC up to $1,500' threshold allows immediate participation for smaller bets without identity verification, provided the transaction stays within these legal limits.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.