Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Polymarket Legal in Canada) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 75% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 75% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 74% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 74% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 59% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 54% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Yassine Bounou: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Issa Diop: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Chadi Riad: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Issa Diop: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Yassine Bounou: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lucas Digne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Chadi Riad: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 45% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 37% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 31% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 30% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Issa Diop: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Chadi Riad: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 16% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Noussair Mazraoui: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Gessime Yassine: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Gessime Yassine: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Chemsdine Talbi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 2% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Neil El Aynaoui: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Achraf Hakimi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 85% chance of france vs. morocco - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Morocco, scheduled for July 9 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of France vs. Morocco - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada has a different geo footprint.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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