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US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth

"US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth" on Polymarket, Kalshi and Is Polymarket Legal in Canada — what traders need to know about platform choice, KYC and tax law.

US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 8.5 100% US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 8.5 100% US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Total Sets: O/U 3.5 100% US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 Winner 100% Volume: $157K Liquidity: $280K Closes: 6 Sept 2026
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US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Polymarket Legal in Canada) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open the market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open the market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open the market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open the market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open the market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 8.5100%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 8.5100%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Total Sets: O/U 3.5100%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 Winner100%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 9.5100%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 10.5100%
Completed Match50%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Match O/U 36.550%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Game Spread +/-0.550%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Total Sets: O/U 4.550%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Match O/U 38.550%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 4 Winner50%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Match O/U 40.550%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 3 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 3 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 3 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 4 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 4 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 4 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth43%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set Handicap +/-1.540%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 3 Winner27%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set Handicap +/-2.51%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 2 Winner0%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 9.50%
US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 10.50%

Market context

The US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and James Duckworth in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnal…

Methodology

This overview of US Open ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs James Duckworth reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada has a different geo footprint.
Do I need to KYC for Is Polymarket Legal in Canada?
Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
What happens during a tax audit?
You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
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Related Topics

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