Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for over 100 days, halting roughly 21% of global oil supply and leaving more than 150 vessels stranded while war-risk insurance premiums surge to extreme levels[4][5]. This unprecedented operational blockade, triggered by Iranian attacks on commercial ships following a US-Israeli strike in late February, has forced rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and added up to 14 extra transit days to supply chains[5][3].

Historical precedents suggest that even after the US-Iran ceasefire on 8 April 2026, commercial traffic remained at a mere trickle with only six vessels navigating the strait in a single 24-hour window[2]. Comparable disruptions in the region have shown that routing uncertainty persists long after formal agreements, as Iranian officials have proposed tolls for passage while the US Treasury warns that payments to the Revolutionary Guards for safe transit face sanctions risks for non-US entities[2]. The current 89% crowd-implied probability of normalisation by December 31 appears optimistic given that the strait briefly reopened on 21 April before closing again the following day[5].

Traders must monitor the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center assessments and any announcements regarding Iranian toll implementation or mine-laying claims, which could further delay reopening[2][3]. A recent Reuters report confirms that despite the ceasefire, commercial shipping remains restricted with continued routing uncertainties, while the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve offers only a temporary buffer against prolonged disruption[2][5]. The market’s accessibility is further shaped by regulatory frameworks: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach mean that while 'no-KYC up to $1,500' allows broader participation, entities must remain vigilant regarding sanctions compliance for any payments linked to Iranian passage[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.