Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is whether any current head of state or government, excluding Viktor Orbán, will be permanently removed from office before the end of 2026. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% for a “Yes” outcome, the market effectively treats all listed leaders—Trump, Putin, Xi, Netanyahu, and Macron—as secure in their positions until the settlement window closes.

Historically, permanent removals of sitting leaders are rare outside of electoral defeat or death, and recent cases like Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment suspension in South Korea do not qualify under this market’s strict definition, which excludes temporary transfers of power. Similarly, Macron has publicly ruled out resigning and confirmed he will serve until his term ends in 2027 [6], while Orbán’s own 2026 election loss to Péter Magyar has already resolved the “Orban” variant of this market, leaving no credible near-term threats to the remaining leaders [2].

Traders should monitor official announcements of resignation, removal, or term expiration without renewal, as these are the only catalysts that could trigger a resolution. No credible news source has reported imminent forced departures for any of the listed leaders, and recent political turmoil in France has not altered Macron’s stated commitment to remain in office [9]. The market’s accessibility is further shaped by regulatory frameworks: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define compliance boundaries, while the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows broader participation without identity verification, though this does not alter the underlying 0% probability [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.