Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

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Market context

Ships routinely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, yet recent data shows transit calls have collapsed by more than 95% due to ongoing regional conflict and attacks on commercial vessels[7]. This market hinges on whether IMF Portwatch records any finalized daily number of arrivals equal to or above the listed threshold before June 30, 2026, with the crowd currently pricing only a 15% chance of that recovery occurring[1].

Historically, similar chokepoints like the Bosporus saw sharp but temporary dips during conflict, yet full recovery often lagged months behind initial stabilisation[2]. The current 15% probability reflects trader scepticism that GPS jamming, AIS spoofing, and vessels going dark will resolve quickly enough to restore normal traffic flows[3]. Unlike past episodes where traffic rebounded within weeks, the Strait’s current disruption involves systemic data integrity issues that may persist beyond the settlement window.

Traders should monitor official announcements on de-escalation in the region and scheduled updates from IMF Portwatch, which recently refreshed data through March 5 but has not yet shown meaningful recovery[9]. A key catalyst is any reduction in attacks on commercial ships, as trade disruptions remain the primary driver of suppressed transit volumes[8]. For accessibility, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach frame the regulatory landscape, while the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows broader participation without identity verification, though this does not alter the market’s underlying risk profile.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.