MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event determining this market is which player accumulates the highest number of stolen bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season, with tie-breakers resolved by caught stealings, on-base percentage, and official MLB rulings. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 8% YES, reflecting the competitive nature of the leaderboard where Nasim Nuñez leads with 31 steals and Bobby Witt Jr. follows closely with 28[3][4]. Historical precedents show that early-season leaders often face significant regression due to injury or defensive adjustments, making the 8% figure a cautious assessment of volatility rather than a definitive forecast[1].

Traders must monitor upcoming roster announcements, injury reports, and the pace of play schedules, as these dependencies directly influence stolen base opportunities. Recent projections from FantasyPros suggest Elly De La Cruz and Chandler Simpson could surpass 40 steals by season end, potentially reshaping the current hierarchy[6]. A trader should also watch for official MLB rule clarifications regarding tie-breakers, as these regulatory nuances could alter settlement outcomes if multiple players finish with identical totals[2].

From a regulatory perspective, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the legal boundaries for this market, while the 'no-KYC up to $1,500' threshold enhances accessibility for participants seeking streamlined entry without extensive identity verification. This specific market’s structure aligns with standard prediction market frameworks where settlement relies on verified statistical data rather than subjective judgment[9]. The accessibility provided by reduced KYC requirements allows broader participation, though traders must remain aware of jurisdictional constraints that may limit access in certain regions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.