US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a June 14, 2026, written diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran, which established a 60-day extendable window to negotiate a final deal on Iran’s nuclear programme, oil sanctions, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This interim pact, reported by Reuters, includes a temporary waiver of oil sanctions, a $25 billion release of frozen Iranian funds, and a commitment by Tehran not to manufacture nuclear weapons while negotiations proceed[1].

Historically, comparable cases such as the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action show that initial frameworks often fail to yield final signed instruments when core disputes—like highly enriched uranium stockpiles or regional proxy activities—remain unresolved. Dan Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel, noted that Iran is adept at prolonging negotiations to extract concessions, and a final deal may never materialise or could be weaker than prior diplomatic outcomes[2]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects this pattern of stalled finalisation despite early framework success.

Traders should monitor scheduled announcements on uranium disposal, sanctions waiver extensions, and any shifts in US-Iran diplomatic schedules, particularly regarding the 60-day negotiation window. Recent reporting confirms the US intends to withhold economic benefits until Iran fulfils agreed steps, including shipping 60% enriched uranium to the US for dilution[4]. Regulatory accessibility for this market is shaped by German GlüStV implications for online gambling, US CFTC reach over prediction markets, and the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold, which allows Canadian and EU users to access the market without identity verification, enhancing liquidity while maintaining compliance with local KYC exemptions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.