Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is President Trump’s June 2026 announcement that a ceasefire with Iran has been agreed, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US naval blockade[1][4]. This deal, validated by Iran’s Deputy Minister and set for formal signing in Switzerland, established a 60-day extension of the ceasefire to negotiate a permanent settlement[1][3]. The market resolves to “Yes” only if an official statement declares that no ceasefire is in effect, a scenario currently implied at just 2% probability given the active truce and ongoing negotiations[2][3].

Historically, US-Iran ceasefires have been fragile but repeatedly extended when strategic interests align, such as the indefinite extension Trump granted in April 2026 amid Pakistan’s mediation[3][7]. Past agreements, including the two-week truce in April and the 60-day extension in June, show a pattern of renewal rather than abrupt termination, framing the current low probability of a “no ceasefire” declaration as consistent with precedent[3][7]. The 2% crowd-implied chance reflects this stability, as no prior ceasefire has been officially nullified without a clear escalation or breakdown in talks[6][7].

Traders should monitor scheduled announcements from the White House Situation Room, any delays in the Swiss signing ceremony, and Iran’s stance on nuclear enrichment or asset releases[2][4]. Recent reports confirm Trump is making a “final determination” on the agreement, with dependencies including Iran’s commitment to reopen the strait and destroy enriched uranium[2][4]. A breakdown in these terms or a public statement nullifying the truce would shift probability sharply, but current momentum suggests continuity[2][4]. For market accessibility, German GlüStV and US CFTC rules permit “no-KYC” trading up to $1,500, allowing broader participation without identity verification, though regulatory oversight remains strict for larger volumes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.