0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any date before July 2026 would signal a total closure of the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, disrupting roughly 21% of global oil supply. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the June 17 US–Iran agreement that guaranteed immediate reopening of commercial navigation, with 25 vessels already recorded passing through on a single Thursday in late June [2].

Historical precedents show that even during active conflict, complete zero-traffic days are rare; in March 2026, tracking data showed a massive drop-off but still recorded 120 passages, and in April, traffic briefly resumed before closing again for just one day [3][5]. The fact that the strait has remained open since the June deal, despite earlier volatility where crude exports fell 90% and zero activity occurred on 10 of the last 19 days, suggests the market views a full shutdown as highly improbable under the current memorandum [1][2].

Traders should monitor the July 19 deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a binding condition of the agreement, alongside any announcements from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding safe routes or toll impositions [2]. Recent reports confirm that while some vessels still run with AIS off, the reopening has been sustained, making a zero-IMF-PortWatch day unlikely unless new security incidents or military escalations reverse the current trajectory [2][7]. Regulatory clarity remains key: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the compliance framework, while ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ ensures this market remains accessible to retail participants without identity verification hurdles.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Polymarket Legal in Canada has a different geo footprint.

Do I need to KYC for Is Polymarket Legal in Canada?

Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.

Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Polymarket Legal in Canada would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.