Türkiye vs. United States

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup group-stage match between Türkiye and the United States, scheduled for Thursday, 25 June 2026 at SoFi Stadium, with the settlement window closing at 02:00 UTC on 26 June. The crowd-implied probability of 23% for a Türkiye win reflects the United States' strong form, having already secured top spot in Group D with two victories, while Türkiye remains volatile despite capable of beating giants on a good day[5][6].

Historical precedents show that teams with consistent past performances, like the USA, often dominate when already advanced, whereas Türkiye's inconsistency has led to mixed outcomes against higher-ranked opponents[5]. Comparable cases in recent World Cups indicate that pre-match probabilities for such mismatches often shift sharply once line-ups and in-game momentum are confirmed, suggesting the current 23% figure may be conservative if Türkiye's defence falters early[2].

Traders should monitor the official line-up announcements released before the 10 p.m. ET broadcast start on FOX, as well as any pre-match injury updates from the USMNT squad, which could alter the expected dominance[3]. Recent commentary highlights that the USA's higher FIFA ranking and two-win record position them to comfortably win, making any deviation in their starting XI a critical catalyst for probability shifts[6][8]. The regulatory landscape further influences accessibility: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach mean that 'no-KYC up to $1,500' allows broader participation for this specific market, provided traders adhere to local tax and KYC thresholds without seeking legal advice.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.