Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, Türkiye and the United States will face in a FIFA World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, with the market resolving solely on the 90-minute regulation score, excluding extra time and penalties. The current crowd-implied probability of 5% for an exact listed score reflects a cautious stance, consistent with historical precedents where similar World Cup fixtures between these nations produced low-scoring or draw outcomes. Their five previous encounters since 1991 show a balanced record—two wins each and one draw—with the USA winning the last two matches, yet both teams averaging under 1.5 goals per game in recent contests[5][6]. This pattern suggests that traders should interpret the 5% probability not as an outlier but as aligned with the teams’ defensive tendencies and the high stakes of a knockout-stage group match.

Key catalysts for traders include Pochettino’s likely rotation after two consecutive USA wins, which could weaken attacking cohesion, and Türkiye’s urgent need for a result to avoid elimination, increasing the likelihood of a cautious, draw-oriented approach[4]. Recent news from U.S. Soccer confirms the USA has already secured their group but remains motivated to make history, while Türkiye’s squad has shown vulnerability in away fixtures, having lost 2–0 to Australia and 1–0 to Paraguay in prior World Cup matches[3][9]. Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and any late injury updates, as these dependencies directly influence goal expectancy. The market’s accessibility is further shaped by regulatory frameworks: German GlüStV implications may restrict access for EU residents, while US CFTC reach could affect compliance for American traders, though the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold enhances accessibility for smaller participants by bypassing identity verification hurdles for this specific fixture.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.