Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, Tunisia and the Netherlands will meet in Kansas City for their final Group F match at the FIFA World Cup, with the market resolving strictly on the score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. The current crowd-implied probability of 9% for a specific exact score reflects a cautious stance, consistent with historical World Cup group-stage encounters where defensive discipline often limits goal differentials. Comparable cases include the 2006 Netherlands versus Argentina match, which ended 0–0 after 90 minutes, and the 2014 Netherlands versus Costa Rica game, where the score remained 0–0 until extra time, suggesting that low-scoring outcomes are frequent in tightly contested group fixtures.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and any late changes to squad availability, as the Netherlands’ aim to top Group F may influence their attacking intensity. Recent coverage from ESPN highlights the Dutch team’s strong form, having won both prior Group F matches, while Tunisia’s coach Hervé Renard has emphasised a defensive approach to secure a draw [1]. Additionally, the UEFA Playoff B winner—either Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, or Albania—will be confirmed in March 2026, but this does not affect the current fixture. The settlement window ends on 25 June 2026 at 23:00 UTC, so any postponement would extend the market’s open period until completion.

From a regulatory perspective, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the legal boundaries for such prediction markets, particularly regarding KYC thresholds. The ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ provision enhances accessibility for smaller traders, allowing participation without identity verification for stakes below this limit. This specific market’s structure, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs, aligns with standard regulatory expectations for clarity in outcome definition. No moralising on trading is offered; the facts remain that the market’s resolution depends solely on the final score after 90 minutes, with any unlisted outcome resolving to “Any Other Score.”

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.