Egypt vs. IR Iran - Total Corners

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Market context

On 26 June 2026 at 11:00 PM ET, Egypt and IR Iran faced each other in the final Group G match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Seattle Stadium, a contest that ended in a 1–1 draw with Egypt advancing to the round of 32[2][3]. The prediction market in question tracks the total number of corners taken during the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time, resolving “Over” if eight or more corners occur and “Under” otherwise[1]. With the current crowd-implied probability for “YES” (Over 8) sitting at 0%, the market reflects a near-certainty that the match produced fewer than eight corners, consistent with the low-corner nature of the actual game where only three corners were recorded by Egypt and none by Iran in the first 25 minutes[6].

Historically, World Cup group-stage matches between defensively organised teams like Egypt and Iran have frequently yielded fewer than eight total corners, particularly when both sides prioritise compact shapes over aggressive pressing[4]. Comparable fixtures in recent tournaments, such as Iran’s 2018 World Cup group matches, often saw corner totals between two and six, reinforcing the plausibility of the current 0% probability for the “Over” outcome[1]. This pattern is further supported by the match’s statistical profile: Egypt registered 15 shots with an xG of 0.81, while Iran had 13 shots and an xG of 1.94, yet neither side generated sustained attacking pressure that typically drives high corner counts[2].

Traders should monitor official FIFA match reports for any post-match revisions to corner statistics, as market resolution depends on the officially declared final score and corner tally[1]. Additionally, the regulatory landscape surrounding such prediction markets is evolving: German GlüStV implications may restrict access for users in Germany, while US CFTC reach could affect platforms offering unregistered derivatives to American traders[1]. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision enhances accessibility for smaller participants but does not exempt platforms from KYC obligations beyond that threshold, limiting the market’s reach to users who can verify identity for larger bets[1]. A recent ESPN report confirms the match’s final outcome and qualification implications, serving as a primary source for verifying the corner count[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.