Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO5) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Grand Final Dota 2 match between GamerLegion and 4 Anchors and Ilmeria at The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs, originally scheduled for 26 June at 7:00 PM ET. Historical data confirms GamerLegion already defeated 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 2–0 in the earlier UB Semifinals on 24 June, with 94.2% of public votes backing their win in that prior encounter[2][3]. This pre-existing dominance frames the current 100% YES probability not as speculation, but as a reflection of established form, mirroring past cases where teams with superior recent head-to-head records faced near-certain resolution in prediction markets.

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements regarding match cancellation, tie scenarios, or delays exceeding seven days, which would trigger a 50–5 settlement rather than a decisive outcome. No recent news suggests disruption, and the match remains on schedule for the Grand Final[1]. Regulatory context includes German GlüStV implications for EU accessibility and US CFTC reach for North American traders; notably, the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold enhances accessibility for this market by allowing smaller participants to trade without identity verification, provided they remain within the limit. This specific provision does not alter the outcome probability but significantly widens the pool of eligible participants.

The market resolves to “GamerLegion” if they win the Grand Final, and to “4 Anchors and Ilmeria” if they prevail. Given GamerLegion’s world ranking of #15 and their four wins in the last five matches[2], the path to victory appears clear. Dependencies include the match being played without cancellation or tie, and completion within the seven-day window. All facts remain consistent with current data, and no moralising on trading necessity is offered—only the structural conditions governing resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO5) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.