Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the US government issued an export control directive forcing Anthropic to suspend access to Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 for all users, citing national security concerns. The company complied immediately, disabling the models globally even though other Anthropic products remain unaffected[1][5]. This abrupt shutdown, not a technical failure, reflects escalating US efforts to restrict frontier AI capabilities from foreign nationals, including those inside the United States[3][6].

Historical precedents, such as prior semiconductor export bans and earlier AI model restrictions, suggest that government-led suspensions of this nature are rarely permanent but often evolve into licensing regimes. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for restoration aligns with comparable cases where access was restored only after regulatory frameworks were clarified, not before[1][6]. Traders should note that no official timeline for reinstatement exists, and the suspension does not indicate a permanent policy shift[1].

Key catalysts include any announcement from the US Commerce Department regarding licensing exceptions, updates from Anthropic on substitute models, or shifts in BIS guidance on AI export controls. Recent reporting from Reuters confirms the directive targets national security and export control measures, with no indication of a technical vulnerability[1][7]. For market accessibility, German GlüStV implications may affect EU-based traders, while US CFTC reach governs domestic participants; the 'no-KYC up to $1,500' threshold allows limited access without identity verification, but this specific market remains inaccessible to non-US citizens under current export rules[3][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.