When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is OpenAI’s imminent public release of a model explicitly named GPT-5.6, expected by late June 2026, with no official system card or API string yet confirmed despite strong backend signals [1][2]. Historical release patterns show OpenAI has maintained a roughly six-week flagship cadence since GPT-5.1 in November 2025, with GPT-5.4 in March and GPT-5.5 on 23 April 2026 [2][4]. This consistency frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability as a market anomaly, given that Polymarket traders previously assigned 83–89% probability to a June 22–28 launch window based on over $1M in contract volume [1][2].

Traders should monitor OpenAI’s Codex backend logs for version-bump entries, the simultaneous release of a system card and safety hub entry (as seen with GPT-5.5), and any live-stream announcements scheduled by OpenAI [2][5]. The Information reported on 10 June that chief scientist Jakub Pachocki described GPT-5.6 as a “meaningful improvement” over GPT-5.5, indicating late-stage preparation [1]. Regulatory accessibility hinges on German GlüStV rules, which permit “no-KYC up to €1,500” for prediction markets, and US CFTC reach, which currently excludes such platforms from direct oversight; this means the market remains accessible to non-US traders without identity verification under the €1,500 threshold [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track When will GPT-5.6 be released? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.